****General Discussion Weather Thread #3 - 2018****

[Miguel Cervantes]

Going to go ahead and crank up the new thread and keep my fingers crossed that the weather models draw a bead on a high percentage chance of landfall and actual believable track once it's on land. They have been all over the place today and it's just getting too close to landfall for this foolishness.

I'll post the 5am information in the morning and hopefully have some credible information for you folks.

 

[Nitram4891]

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
The main concern continues to be Hurricane Florence and its
eventual track. There is increasing indications that Florence
will stall for a period somewhere near the NC to SC coastline
then take a track to the SW before heading up somewhere between
the SAV river Valley and the center of GA. This will mean increased
winds and rain chances for a large portion of the area somewhere
in the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe.

The GFS wants to take Florence up the SAV river valley and the
European up the center of GA or so. Both models greatly weaken
Florence as this occurs from a wind standpoint. The southern
Appalachians and portions of N and E GA could become a target
for heavy rainfall.

Let me be clear that the details of the forecast are still highly
uncertain but there is some increased confidence for a wetter and
windier period.

From the NWS this morning. That last sentence is hilarious.

 

[mguthrie]

Miggy must have over slept

 

[mguthrie]

Or he's trying to pull his hair out. The tv met's are showing it impacting north Georgia now

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

Miggy must have over slept

Waiting on the FV3-GFS to finish running for my post on FB with graphics.
Unfortunately here you will get the static versions with pics and not gifs.

As soon as the models is done I will post my lengthy diatribe on the MET Shack.

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

Here it is in the Met Shack.

Read it carefully because it is all of the information I have and I will not be answering questions about it. I have too much work to do today to play the IMBY game.

http://forum.gon.com/threads/hurricane-florence-september-2018.926095/

 

[Crakajak]

Here it is in the Met Shack.

Read it carefully because it is all of the information I have and I will not be answering questions about it. I have too much work to do today to play the IMBY game.

http://forum.gon.com/threads/hurricane-florence-september-2018.926095/

Hope your head feels better today. Thanks for all the updates.Looks like you called the left hand turn correct yesterday. Hope your a 180 degree wrong and it turns and heads out to sea.

 

[mguthrie]

Here it is in the Met Shack.

Read it carefully because it is all of the information I have and I will not be answering questions about it. I have too much work to do today to play the IMBY game.

http://forum.gon.com/threads/hurricane-florence-september-2018.926095/

Thx miggy. The last pic you posted shows tropical storm force winds from central Florida north near Pennsylvania on Saturday. This is one huge storm

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

Thx miggy. The last pic you posted shows tropical storm force winds from central Florida north near Pennsylvania on Saturday. This is one huge storm

The percentages map (in color) is the percentage chance that those areas will see tropical storm force winds. Not a guarantee they will. The outermost band (green) is 5% chance or less.

 

[PappyHoel]

Euro has it making a left over north ga / Atlanta? If I’m reading that right?

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

Euro has it making a left over north ga / Atlanta? If I’m reading that right?

You are not.

 

[JonathanG2013]

Hugh,

If Florence decides to turn left, would N GA receive a lot of rain and light wind? Or would we get strong winds also that could down trees and power lines? I know a lot would decide on how Florence weakens when it makes land fall/

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

Yes, possibly, maybe.

 

[Hooked On Quack]

TWC blows. They couldn't find their buttocks with both hands and a flashlight... I'll hang with Miggie.

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

TWC blows. They couldn't find their buttocks with both hands and a flashlight... I'll hang with Miggie.

Speaking of that. I found your flashlight.

 

[Hooked On Quack]

Speaking of that. I found your flashlight.

Where was it ???

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

Where was it ???

I'll send you a pic.

 

[Hooked On Quack]

I'll send you a pic.

That was from your Colonoscopy a couple weeks ago ...

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

That was from your Colonoscopy a couple weeks ago ...

 

[GoldDot40]

Almost all of this is going to the coast...just some perspective.

https://imgur.com/a/Hvb0oB8