***Tropical Weather Thread 2017***

• Aug 23, 2017

• #1

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

With things starting to heat up in the Tropics it looks like we will get to feel the effect of some of that weather, even if it is just rain.

Harvey is expected to come in to the US as the first landfalling hurricane this year. With the lack of a steering current in the upper atmosphere it could dump tons and tons of rain over the areas it travels.

I certainly hope New Orleans gets their pump problems solved prior to early next week. If Harvey drifts over the SE at a slow pace it could be devastating in the way of flooding for many locations.

The GFS and CFS are on two totally different solutions for the path and timing. The NAM only reaches out to 84 hours or so, so it doesn't have an opinion yet.

If the GFS proves out, we could see Tuesday or Wednesday highs in the 60's with a lot of rain.

Here's the NAM map showing a double whammy for the US, one landfall storm and one just brushing the SE / Atlantic coastline.

 

• Aug 23, 2017

• #2

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

 

• Aug 23, 2017

• #3

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

 

• Aug 23, 2017

• #4

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.@NWS has issued its first-ever operational storm surge watch, in effect for portions of the Texas coast #Harveyhttps://t.co/eOSsNSyNAL pic.twitter.com/HXBJKYm8RA</p>— NHC_Surge (@NHC_Surge) August 23, 2017</blockquote>
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• Aug 23, 2017

• #5

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

 

• Aug 24, 2017

• #6

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Harvey Update - Continues to strengthen in the Gulf, moving slowly NW toward Texas. Latest tropical info: https://t.co/M9NXOoQzfe pic.twitter.com/5vQWQlhqHu</p>— NWS Birmingham (@NWSBirmingham) August 24, 2017</blockquote>
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• Aug 24, 2017

• #7

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rainfall forecasts have doubled from NWS WPC for SE Texas. Now 20-inches+ looks likely w/slow moving (Hurricane) #Harvey pic.twitter.com/wd2NXbag3t</p>— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) August 24, 2017</blockquote>
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• Aug 24, 2017

• #8

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

Note the "M" on the landfall potential chart. That is for "Major" hurricane. This is a dire situation. The Governor of Texas has already declared 16 counties Disaster Areas ahead of this landfall.

 

Last edited: Aug 24, 2017

• Aug 24, 2017

• #9

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

I can't tell if they're running bets on this storm in Vegas or are being intellectually honest with this banter.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">#Harvey forecast to reach Category 3 strength, could be strongest TX coastal bend landfall since Celia in 1970: https://t.co/GLB2WWCWdY pic.twitter.com/YEnCEs1Tgn</p>— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) August 24, 2017</blockquote>
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• Aug 24, 2017

• #10

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

Harvey is exploding into power. He looks to be a serious threat to life and property along the Texas coast.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">#Harvey is now a #hurricane w/80-mph winds. A special advisory is coming by 1p CDT to update the intensity forecast https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/8tSkzNziqV</p>— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) August 24, 2017</blockquote>
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• Aug 24, 2017

• #11

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

Mandatory Evacuation Orders have started.

http://www.cityofportaransas.org/pdf/8-24 Evacuation Order.pdf

 

• Aug 24, 2017

• #12

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

This interactive potential storm surge map from the NHC paints a dismal picture.

Check it out.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/031738.shtml?inundation

 

• Aug 31, 2017

• #13

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

The Mets are starting to get real nervous about Irma. This seems to be a year like 2005 when there were a slew of named storms and even a good handful of Cat 5's.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If one major hurricane isn&#39;t enough to worry about, then about another one right behind it? Often they come in pairs. pic.twitter.com/NGKy04giZj</p>— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) August 31, 2017</blockquote>
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• Aug 31, 2017

• #14

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Long range (15 day ensemble) is foreboding for potential major hurricane landfall impacts. We need Irma to recurve away. Too early but ... pic.twitter.com/W8LZWfp7tF</p>— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) August 31, 2017</blockquote>
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• Sep 2, 2017

• #15

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

Irma

We are a week out so there is still much uncertainty in where this storm is going. However, now only a week out there is more guidance on where it might go.

Here is the Euro prognostication for the 240 hr. model run.
The GFS doesn't put Irma even close to land until the 300 hr model and even then recurves it back out to sea.

 

• Oct 6, 2017

• #16

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master

Nate

After a days worth of modeling Nate seems to the locked in to a SE LA landfall as an estimated Cat 1 storm that will rapidly move off to the NE.

The spread of the moisture to the East of Nate is unknown right now. but hopefully us Jawja folk will get a little out of it.