**** General Weather Discussion Thread #8 2017***

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Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master
What about the last week of the month ??

I think the CFS is on crack, but then I think the GFS, as usual for winter weather, is too conservative and is lagging.
Too many runs at N. Ga on the CFS for the GFS not to moderate that direction eventually. I don't have access to the cool day by day Euro maps this far out to see what they say. With the AO and NAO trending negative for the long term, and IF a good Atlantic blocking high set up then anything is possible with the right moisture feed in place. All of this is fantasy land stuff, until it isn't. ;)

What about next 19th? Well according to the CFS at least, the GFS isn't even close to agreement with this one.
snod.conus.png


And then again on 22nd for the CFS, again the GFS is just laughing at this model.
snod.conus.png


Then Dec. 3rd.
snod.conus.png


Then Dec. 5th
snod.conus.png


All the way through Dec. 7th
snod.conus.png


Then it gets interesting again on the 12th
snod.conus.png
 

Miguel Cervantes

Jedi Master
NAO trend going decidedly negative beyond Nov. 16th

nao.sprd2.gif


AO concurs

ao.sprd2.gif


Up until recently the PNA was showing negative which would have discredited any potential for the NAO and AO, but now it is showing a positive swing around the same time. This is good for our potential.

pna.sprd2.gif


The bottom line is, for us to benefit out of any flaky potential in the near future we really need that Atlantic blocking and gulf moisture. We just want to avoid a strong cad with overriding gulf moisture, that is when it gets shiny and slick.
 

malak05

Senior Member
Good News everyone we have are 1st official GFS model Fantasy snow in GA on Nov.27 just 2 weeks from now!!!! I'm sure it will happen and we will all be making snow angels (Sarcasm)... But it is fun to be back into winter time and even seeing 2 week out fantasy winter weather.
 

smokey30725

Senior Member
Well, the one thing we can be certain of is that Hillbilly is gonna get way more than he wants of both cold and snow, but he'll stay up on his mountain. ::ke::cheers:

I can sense his orneriness from here.................:rofl:
 

NCHillbilly

Administrator
Staff member
Well, the one thing we can be certain of is that Hillbilly is gonna get way more than he wants of both cold and snow, but he'll stay up on his mountain. ::ke::cheers:

I can sense his orneriness from here.................:rofl:

Nah, those pictures show less cold and snow than normal for late Nov-Dec here. I'm happy. :D
 
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