turkeyman55
Senior Member
2019 Heisman Favorites
Heisman Candidates
Heisman Odds
CFP Odds
2018 PPG
My "Top 50" Rank
Trevor Lawrence (Clemson, QB)
+250
+195
44
QB2
Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama, QB)
+250
+230
46
QB1
Justin Fields (Ohio State, QB)
+1100
+1200
42*
QB14
Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma, QB)
+1100
+1600
48*
QB10
D'Andre Swift (Georgia, RB)
+1400
+850
38
RB3
Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin, RB)
+1400
+7500
29*
RB2
Jake Fromm (Georgia, QB)
+1600
+850
38
QB3
Adrian Martinez (Nebraska, QB)
+1800
+8000
30
QB18
Travis Etienne (Clemson, RB)
+2200
+195
44
RB1
Sam Ehlinger (Texas, QB)
+2200
+3000
31
QB4
Justin Herbert (Oregon, QB)
+2200
+5500
35
QB8
Jake Fromm (+1600) is my favorite bet on the board for a few reasons -- he’s good, he plays for a great team in Georgia, and there’s some meat on the bone in terms of payout if it connects. Fromm finished as my QB3 when I ranked my Top 50 College Quarterbacks of 2019, only trailing the two guys I’m writing up next. However, Fromm is more than efficient enough to be in the mix heading into Championship weekend -- Fromm finished with the 10th best Total QBR sophomore season since 2004 -- so we’ll be looking really nice if we can get some positive touchdown variance. Also, Fromm’s Heisman odds don’t reflect just how good Georgia is. In fact, the betting markets give Georgia 11% implied odds to win the Natty, but Fromm’s implied odds of winning the Heisman are just 6%. That five percent difference is tied for largest among quarterbacks this year and that’s exactly what we should be aiming for knowing most Heisman winners play on elite teams.
Trevor Lawrence (+250) is chalk, but I’m willing to eat it. According to betting markets, Clemson has 34% implied odds of winning the National Championship this year, but Lawrence only has 29% implied odds of winning the Heisman. That’s some tasty +EV right there. As a freshman last year, Lawrence led the Clemson offense to 44 points per game -- that easily cleared the 41 points per game threshold I listed in the intro notes -- and the offense basically remains the same in 2019. However, I think some of Travis Etienne’s 24 rushing touchdowns from last year will turn into Lawrence passing touchdowns purely due to regression. Since Clemson has better odds of remaining undefeated heading into Heisman voting on December 3rd, I like Lawrence slightly more than Tua Tagovailoa for the Heisman.
However, Tua Tagovailoa (+250) is still a good bet. We all know Tua’s a stud, and we all know Alabama means business -- read Mark Lindquist’s column about the Alabama dynasty under Nick Saban -- but the reason I’ll eat these odds is because of the narratives we get with a Tua ticket. I think Tua will get the benefit of the doubt in 2019 if there are two deserving candidates because it’s his last chance at winning Heisman and because he arguably lost last year’s trophy due to injuries. These narratives matter whether we like it or not. Overall, I really like the favorites this year. I’d say there’s a 75-80% chance the Heisman Trophy Winner is either Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, or Jake Fromm. These quarterbacks and their teams are just too good for secondary candidates to surpass all three.
Heisman Candidates
Heisman Odds
CFP Odds
2018 PPG
My "Top 50" Rank
Trevor Lawrence (Clemson, QB)
+250
+195
44
QB2
Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama, QB)
+250
+230
46
QB1
Justin Fields (Ohio State, QB)
+1100
+1200
42*
QB14
Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma, QB)
+1100
+1600
48*
QB10
D'Andre Swift (Georgia, RB)
+1400
+850
38
RB3
Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin, RB)
+1400
+7500
29*
RB2
Jake Fromm (Georgia, QB)
+1600
+850
38
QB3
Adrian Martinez (Nebraska, QB)
+1800
+8000
30
QB18
Travis Etienne (Clemson, RB)
+2200
+195
44
RB1
Sam Ehlinger (Texas, QB)
+2200
+3000
31
QB4
Justin Herbert (Oregon, QB)
+2200
+5500
35
QB8
Jake Fromm (+1600) is my favorite bet on the board for a few reasons -- he’s good, he plays for a great team in Georgia, and there’s some meat on the bone in terms of payout if it connects. Fromm finished as my QB3 when I ranked my Top 50 College Quarterbacks of 2019, only trailing the two guys I’m writing up next. However, Fromm is more than efficient enough to be in the mix heading into Championship weekend -- Fromm finished with the 10th best Total QBR sophomore season since 2004 -- so we’ll be looking really nice if we can get some positive touchdown variance. Also, Fromm’s Heisman odds don’t reflect just how good Georgia is. In fact, the betting markets give Georgia 11% implied odds to win the Natty, but Fromm’s implied odds of winning the Heisman are just 6%. That five percent difference is tied for largest among quarterbacks this year and that’s exactly what we should be aiming for knowing most Heisman winners play on elite teams.
Trevor Lawrence (+250) is chalk, but I’m willing to eat it. According to betting markets, Clemson has 34% implied odds of winning the National Championship this year, but Lawrence only has 29% implied odds of winning the Heisman. That’s some tasty +EV right there. As a freshman last year, Lawrence led the Clemson offense to 44 points per game -- that easily cleared the 41 points per game threshold I listed in the intro notes -- and the offense basically remains the same in 2019. However, I think some of Travis Etienne’s 24 rushing touchdowns from last year will turn into Lawrence passing touchdowns purely due to regression. Since Clemson has better odds of remaining undefeated heading into Heisman voting on December 3rd, I like Lawrence slightly more than Tua Tagovailoa for the Heisman.
However, Tua Tagovailoa (+250) is still a good bet. We all know Tua’s a stud, and we all know Alabama means business -- read Mark Lindquist’s column about the Alabama dynasty under Nick Saban -- but the reason I’ll eat these odds is because of the narratives we get with a Tua ticket. I think Tua will get the benefit of the doubt in 2019 if there are two deserving candidates because it’s his last chance at winning Heisman and because he arguably lost last year’s trophy due to injuries. These narratives matter whether we like it or not. Overall, I really like the favorites this year. I’d say there’s a 75-80% chance the Heisman Trophy Winner is either Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, or Jake Fromm. These quarterbacks and their teams are just too good for secondary candidates to surpass all three.
