December Winter Weather 2016

Thread starter #1

DDD

GON Winter Weatherman
So I wondered with the drought how long it would take before I got to talk about winter weather.

Before we go forward we have to go back. The summer was a blow torch El Nino. One for the record books. Typically strong El Nino's are followed by weak to mild La Nina's. Weak to Mild La Nina's are typically mild on temps and very dry.

Obviously we have been very dry already however the pattern has changed at least temporarily if not permanently. Also, it's winter time. I don't care how you slice it, it's winter and it's about time we had some things to talk about.

Typically January and February are our "winter months". February 14th is always my favorite date to guess as to when we will see a good snow storm. So when I look at winter weather in December I think of it as bonus winter weather. December should be "laying the ground work" for January and February. I feel the same way about March. It's bonus if we have winter weather threats in March.

The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) came out in early November and stated that a weak La Nina is most probable and to expect typical La Nina conditions through the next three months. There is some indicators however data is starting to point to a rapid decreasing of La Nina. In other words, La Nina may only last for a very short time which would give credit to January / February being a more typical winter. Which for the South East is usually wet and mild winter temps with shots of cold mixed in. I personally believe that is where we are headed.

So let's break this into two sections of thought. First is my thought on the short term and Second will be the thought on January / February.

Short Term: I think between now and the first of the year we will have quick, winter "punches". Old Man Winter will throw some cold punches into the South East but because of typical climate, the temps will rebound quickly. Now, typically with cold that spills in from Canada it "pushes" out any moisture. You will hear the Mexican and I refer to it as "Cold chasing moisture". It is possible that the cold air spills in and moisture pours in from the gulf. I will post pictures of that very scenario in a post after this one.

Long Term: The La Nina breaks down, ocean and atmospheric conditions hit more of an anomaly status and perform outside of typical La Nina winters. I think Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina are tremendously over due for a severe CAD (Cold Air Damming) Event. The way High Pressure has dominated the NE Coast and positioned itself out over the Atlantic I believe one or possibly 2 of those HPS (High Pressure Systems) will "lock in" and with over running moisture an ice storm will take place. I think the potential for ICE this year out weighs the potential for snow. That said though, I think we will see 2-3 real threats of snow for the northern 1/3 of Georgia. I think in the post El Nino and La Nina winter scenario it will be hard for anyone south of Macon to see snow or ice. That's not to say it won't happen, I just think the odds are really low this winter of snow / ice south of Macon.
 
Thread starter #2

DDD

GON Winter Weatherman
Let's talk about some short term stuff. (This is 13 - 14 days out)

Right off the bat the GFS has been hinting at a possible snow threat for the extreme N. GA area for a couple of days anywhere from 10-15 days out.

Now on the very latest run tonight, the GFS is either onto the snow shot of the century for December or it's drunk and needs to go home. I think it's drunk, but I will post the pictures for your enjoyment or to boost milk and bread sales if need be. :rofl:

So what the GFS paints is a super big cold shot into the South East followed by over running moisture. The cold is so deep that snow flies heavily into South Georgia. Do I think this happens? No. What I do think is the GFS is seeing more moisture and more cold shots in the future for the South East.

Weenie run. :rofl::rofl::rofl:
 

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Miguel Cervantes

GON Severe Weatherman
Snow doesn't scare me near as much as this stuff does. ;)
 

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Thread starter #4

DDD

GON Winter Weatherman
We may have to keep an eye on this. Yesterday showed a strong CAD signal but no moisture. This morning the GFS has some moisture to go with the CAD. The models never get CAD modeling right and it's usually stronger and colder than modeled. This is just the first run to show this scenario but it is worth watching.
 

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Thread starter #5

DDD

GON Winter Weatherman
Welllllllllll...... the 12z GFS continues to add the cold and the moisture. It's 5 days out, so it's not in fantasy land. What strikes me about this scenario is that the GFS or any model for that matter rarely picks up on this set up this far out, so I am not sure if the GFS has turned into a hound dog with a clear sinus cavity or if it's drunk at the 5 day range.

Is it a trend? Not ready to buy into that just yet. For sure though, we have to keep the eyes wide open on this.

This would be Friday night / early Saturday morning into Saturday during the daytime.
 

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Thread starter #7

DDD

GON Winter Weatherman
The GFS has doubled down in coverage and amount. Interesting.

3 straight runs the GFS has started hinting at an ice storm. I am still not all in on this because quite frankly, we usually don't see the GFS sniff out an ice storm until the 48-72 hour range. Usually the NAM gets after it first, but this is different.

Is it right? Don't know, but here is what I do know.

Typically the CAD is UNDER modeled. Meaning, as we get closer the amount of moisture and low level cold is realized and increases. With the CAD events details matter. Timing matters. Placement of the High Pressure matters. How warm everything gets the days before matters.

Can't ignore it at this point.
 

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Thread starter #8

DDD

GON Winter Weatherman
The GFS shut the door on the icing event for Saturday. Now its just a really cold rain that is modeled. Could it come back? Possibly. I will keep the periscope on it.
 
Thread starter #9

DDD

GON Winter Weatherman
So of interest tonight... the NAM, which in the past has typically handled the low level cold the best has come on board to thinking there is an ice threat to extreme North East Georgia.

The GFS has completely abandoned the thought of ICE anywhere in Georgia.

Right now, I would not be surprised to see the GFS come back around to it's original thinking and start showing the CAD more prevalent and in place in the coming runs.

Forecasters across the SE have started to make the mention of the freezing rain possibility for Saturday. Tomorrow we should start to see some sort of picture evolve that will direct opinions a little better.
 

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Thread starter #11

DDD

GON Winter Weatherman
There is a freezing fog advisory and I have to be honest, I went outside about an hour ago and my truck and vehicles are covered in a light sheet of ice. Bridges around rivers and lakes very well could be a skating rink in the morning.
 
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