****General Discussion Weather Thread #3 - 2018****

Thread starter #1

Miguel Cervantes

GON Severe Weatherman
Going to go ahead and crank up the new thread and keep my fingers crossed that the weather models draw a bead on a high percentage chance of landfall and actual believable track once it's on land. They have been all over the place today and it's just getting too close to landfall for this foolishness.

I'll post the 5am information in the morning and hopefully have some credible information for you folks.
 
.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
The main concern continues to be Hurricane Florence and its
eventual track. There is increasing indications that Florence
will stall for a period somewhere near the NC to SC coastline
then take a track to the SW before heading up somewhere between
the SAV river Valley and the center of GA. This will mean increased
winds and rain chances for a large portion of the area somewhere
in the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe.

The GFS wants to take Florence up the SAV river valley and the
European up the center of GA or so. Both models greatly weaken
Florence as this occurs from a wind standpoint. The southern
Appalachians and portions of N and E GA could become a target
for heavy rainfall.

Let me be clear that the details of the forecast are still highly
uncertain but there is some increased confidence for a wetter and
windier period.
From the NWS this morning. That last sentence is hilarious.
 

mguthrie

Senior Member
Or he's trying to pull his hair out. The tv met's are showing it impacting north Georgia now
 
Thread starter #5

Miguel Cervantes

GON Severe Weatherman
Miggy must have over slept
Waiting on the FV3-GFS to finish running for my post on FB with graphics.
Unfortunately here you will get the static versions with pics and not gifs.

As soon as the models is done I will post my lengthy diatribe on the MET Shack.
 
Thread starter #6

Miguel Cervantes

GON Severe Weatherman

Crakajak

Senior Member

mguthrie

Senior Member
Thread starter #9

Miguel Cervantes

GON Severe Weatherman
Thx miggy. The last pic you posted shows tropical storm force winds from central Florida north near Pennsylvania on Saturday. This is one huge storm
The percentages map (in color) is the percentage chance that those areas will see tropical storm force winds. Not a guarantee they will. The outermost band (green) is 5% chance or less.
 
Thread starter #11

Miguel Cervantes

GON Severe Weatherman
Hugh,

If Florence decides to turn left, would N GA receive a lot of rain and light wind? Or would we get strong winds also that could down trees and power lines? I know a lot would decide on how Florence weakens when it makes land fall/
 
Thread starter #13

Miguel Cervantes

GON Severe Weatherman
Yes, possibly, maybe.
 
Thread starter #15

Miguel Cervantes

GON Severe Weatherman
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