DDD
Winter Weatherman
The pattern is full... we need to land this bird.
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***General Weather Discussion #10 for 2017 / 2018***
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Miguel Cervantes
Jedi Master
Repeating my argument here for those that miss it on the locked thread.
The critical question that needs to be answered is the altitude of the moisture and can the air support the moisture. Temps during the estimated timing of this event will be in a favorable range at the surface up to perhaps 850 mb, but the way a low pressure system distributes moisture is by taking in moisture from the surface and dispersing it at altitude creating rain, or in this case snow. At 500mb the air temperature will be in the -27 to -31 celsius range. For this argument we will use -30 celsius which translates to -22 degrees Fahrenheit over the region where the 12k NAM is projecting snow. Moisture evaporates at that temperature and doesn't stand a chance. If the moisture intrudes the area at 700mb height the temps are projected to be -12 celsius or 10 degrees fahrenheit. This is a marginal range to support moisture transfer to the surface. If the moisture comes over us at 850mb the temps will be around -8 celsius or 17 degrees fahrenheit. The other thing to consider is this is a progressive tropopause that will be deepening with every hour that passes so temps at altitude won't be static and will be getting colder as the day goes on. Further minimizing the chances for moisture transfer to the surface. IF the moisture is in place before the tropopause deepens over our area then chances are good, but looking at the EURO temp maps at differing altitudes the chances aren't good. I believe this is what the NAM 3km is recognizing by showing rain at lower latitudes in Georgia where it is possible for the atmosphere to support it. We are at a point now where model agreement between the NAM 3km and the EURO should start coming together over the next 24 hours and will have a much clearer picture of what our potential is.
The critical question that needs to be answered is the altitude of the moisture and can the air support the moisture. Temps during the estimated timing of this event will be in a favorable range at the surface up to perhaps 850 mb, but the way a low pressure system distributes moisture is by taking in moisture from the surface and dispersing it at altitude creating rain, or in this case snow. At 500mb the air temperature will be in the -27 to -31 celsius range. For this argument we will use -30 celsius which translates to -22 degrees Fahrenheit over the region where the 12k NAM is projecting snow. Moisture evaporates at that temperature and doesn't stand a chance. If the moisture intrudes the area at 700mb height the temps are projected to be -12 celsius or 10 degrees fahrenheit. This is a marginal range to support moisture transfer to the surface. If the moisture comes over us at 850mb the temps will be around -8 celsius or 17 degrees fahrenheit. The other thing to consider is this is a progressive tropopause that will be deepening with every hour that passes so temps at altitude won't be static and will be getting colder as the day goes on. Further minimizing the chances for moisture transfer to the surface. IF the moisture is in place before the tropopause deepens over our area then chances are good, but looking at the EURO temp maps at differing altitudes the chances aren't good. I believe this is what the NAM 3km is recognizing by showing rain at lower latitudes in Georgia where it is possible for the atmosphere to support it. We are at a point now where model agreement between the NAM 3km and the EURO should start coming together over the next 24 hours and will have a much clearer picture of what our potential is.
jbird1
Senior Member
Lukikus2
Senior Member
Since no one else can forecast the weather correctly. I'll stay tuned to this forecast 
Miguel Cervantes
Jedi Master
Well now, isn't this interesting. (Personally I think it's bunk)
A shot at snow in South Ga, according to the EURO. I don't see it happening at all, with temps aloft from 700mb on up too cold to support moisture. But from 850mb on down they can. Here's the kicker, the EURO is showing some freak cold air pooling at the surface that I don't know where they got and then it's warmer at 925mb then colder again at 850mb. So IF any moisture survived to fall here AND that mystical cold air pooling showed up you would more than likely looking at a 3 to 4 hour icing event instead of snow.
But like I said, I'm not buying any of it.
A shot at snow in South Ga, according to the EURO. I don't see it happening at all, with temps aloft from 700mb on up too cold to support moisture. But from 850mb on down they can. Here's the kicker, the EURO is showing some freak cold air pooling at the surface that I don't know where they got and then it's warmer at 925mb then colder again at 850mb. So IF any moisture survived to fall here AND that mystical cold air pooling showed up you would more than likely looking at a 3 to 4 hour icing event instead of snow.
But like I said, I'm not buying any of it.
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fountain
Senior Member
I'm cold
PappyHoel
Senior Member
Dry clear and cold
SGADawg
Senior Member
Local Met is buying it. Don't bring us down Miggy. Even unlikely chances are all we get down here in Coffee Co.
GoldDot40
Senior Member
You know it's cold outside when you walk outside and it's cold....
~signed, Capt Obvious
~signed, Capt Obvious
Miguel Cervantes
Jedi Master
Local Met is buying it. Don't bring us down Miggy. Even unlikely chances are all we get down here in Coffee Co.
Sorry, Euro even took it away after the 00z run. With the exception of a little blurb around Waycross it ain't gunna happen, and even that one ain't gunna happen cause everyone knows the temps comin out of that big ol swamp are warmer than the surrounding land.
blood on the ground
Cross threading is better than two lock washers.
Glad i skipped hunting this morning.... Its a little brrrrisk out
41 degrees with a light steady rain here in the woods. Deer are moving real good.
Local forecast here = highs in the 20s, maybe teens, and lows in single digits all week. Brrr.
Water Swat
Senior Member
Good duck hunt this morning and about to go sit in a deer stand the rest of the day.
Good weather for a duck hunt. I came out just long enough to eat, and I`ll be headed back to the stand shortly. I lost count at 10 deer this morning. They were chasing all over the woods.
Jeff C.
Chief Grass Master
I can remember back when you were still able to count past 10, Ol Let's'em Walk.
Can you believe that I was called a brown it`s down hunter not long ago?
I asked for cold weather for this winter. looks like I`m getting it.
Jeff C.
Chief Grass Master
Can you believe that I was called a brown it`s down hunter not long ago?
I asked for cold weather for this winter. looks like I`m getting it.
No way.....
Glad y'all gettin some nice hunting temps down that way.
Good Hunting, Nic!
25 with snow showers here right now.
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