Hurricane/Tides

Miguel Cervantes

GON Severe Weatherman
That tells me it hits South Carolina coast and then shots up the coast in a north easterly direction.
Lows are attracted the area of most favorable conditions, which are other lows. I believe this is why the EURO has it coming all of the way down to Ga for a landfall.

Time will tell.
 

Rabun

Senior Member
Lows are attracted the area of most favorable conditions, which are other lows. I believe this is why the EURO has it coming all of the way down to Ga for a landfall.

Time will tell.
I tend to agree with you...now how far south and how far west it gets is the question. Hopefully it makes landfall first before heading south. Hanging just offshore and skirting down the coast would not be good at all.
 
I know a few models have Florence pushing Southwest just before or immediately after landfall - but = = = The weak low pressure ridge moving east from the Smokeys is going to want to push the hurricane north. The counterclockwise rotation means impact between the west side of Flo and the weaker low boundary will not be a significant issue, but my bet is that will be enough to keep Florence from making it's way to Georgia before moving inshore.

My bet is still landfall north of Charleston, SC followed by a very slow move inland for at least 24 hours before bending south (if it even bends south). That means Savannah might get a little wind and North GA will get wind, thunderstorms, and a LOT of rain.
 
https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...aphic=-68.15, 30.17, 3000/loc=-66.024, 27.462

The above site maps the wind speeds over the entire earth from the surface into the stratosphere. If you look at the surface wind speed of Florence the highest wind speed atm is around 150 kmh. Multiply that by .6 and you get 92 mph. They are using the upper atmosphere wind speeds to categorize this as a cat 4 when, in reality, it's just a cat 1 or barely a cat 2 at best. More fake news to panic the public into abandoning their homes and spending money they don't have. Trust your "government" to screw you every way they can.
 

Miguel Cervantes

GON Severe Weatherman
facepalm::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:
 
The latest update from NHC (8pm 9/12) showes Florence unexpectedly weakening. Max sustained winds at 115mph and 28.3 inches of mercury. Still a dangerous storm, but further evidence that the art of weather forecasting is NOT (yet?) a real science. Whatever is happening, the computer models did not predict it!
 
Thread starter #29
So back to the orignal question everyone, can I go fishing around St Marys inshore and not worry about the weather or huge tides? Everything I am reading suggests a good fishing day.
 

Rabun

Senior Member
So back to the orignal question everyone, can I go fishing around St Marys inshore and not worry about the weather or huge tides? Everything I am reading suggests a good fishing day.
I would go for it and keep a guarded eye on the weather and stay in relatively guarded areas. Looks like minimal rain but winds will be picking up out of the W and SW Sat and Sun. I would think the tides will be impacted...lower than normal. Shouldn't see any storm surge or big influx of fresh water from run off. Let us know what you decide. What kind of boat will you be in?
 

Miguel Cervantes

GON Severe Weatherman
Tides and current are presently being effected all of the way to the Bahamas.

But hey, , , , , ,
 
Senior Miguel has a point.

If you plan to go near shore Atlantic, expect confused, choppy waters with onshore swells of up to 6' and wicked cross waves of 3 to 4'. Rain bands may also show up moving in from the northeast as the Gulf Stream pushes moisture up to be moved along by the outer bands of Florence. Also watch out for some nasty tide runs through the St Marys Inlet as those wave enhanced, swollen tides push through the cut.

Have fun, enjoy the warm weather and rollercoaster rides!
 

Rabun

Senior Member
Senior Miguel has a point.

If you plan to go near shore Atlantic, expect confused, choppy waters with onshore swells of up to 6' and wicked cross waves of 3 to 4'. Rain bands may also show up moving in from the northeast as the Gulf Stream pushes moisture up to be moved along by the outer bands of Florence. Also watch out for some nasty tide runs through the St Marys Inlet as those wave enhanced, swollen tides push through the cut.

Have fun, enjoy the warm weather and rollercoaster rides!
I am assuming when he said inshore he meant within the rivers and creeks...protected areas. Would not venture into sounds, bays, open waters. But I am curious what y'all think about how the GA coast water levels will be affected...rivers & streams. You think there will be a high water surge along our coast?
 

Miguel Cervantes

GON Severe Weatherman
I am assuming when he said inshore he meant within the rivers and creeks...protected areas. Would not venture into sounds, bays, open waters. But I am curious what y'all think about how the GA coast water levels will be affected...rivers & streams. You think there will be a high water surge along our coast?
I think the quality of water will be horrible as Florence moves south producing a good offshore wind flow which will aid in pushing water out of the creeks, muddying it up real good.

If florence weakens sufficiently and goes inshore sooner than predicted then there could be no effect at all, especially as far south as St. Mary's. Unfortunately this is a wait and see forecast. Having to depend on weather models in a difficult to predict landfall like this flat out sux. My prediction when this all started was a Pamlico Sound landfall and recurving north back out to the Atlantic. It's a shame these stupid storms don't listen to me. Would save everyone a bunch of grief. But hey, at least I called Gordon right with a Biloxi to Mobile landfall.... :rofl::rofl::rofl:
 

Rabun

Senior Member
Yes...she's a fickle girl for sure. I really think she will track into SC staying inland after making landfall in NC and then head north west over rabun county/greenville area by Monday hopefully continuing that track never to seen again in the SE. SWAG!!
 
Thread starter #37
Yes...she's a fickle girl for sure. I really think she will track into SC staying inland after making landfall in NC and then head north west over rabun county/greenville area by Monday hopefully continuing that track never to seen again in the SE. SWAG!!

Planning on inshore, not venturing off offshore or even off of Cumberland. I am getting conflicting reports on the tides from folks on the coast so not sure what to believe.

As it is tide is only 7.1 and 0.6 so its not a huge tide to begin with. So a 2-3 ft tide increase wouldnt be anything too out of the norm for the area.

Wind forecast is 5-10 mph, precipitation 10-15% chance.

Seems like a good day to fish minus the storm up North. Also storm is tracking to move North once it comes inland so I am going to make a decision tomorrow on it.
 
Planning on inshore, not venturing off offshore or even off of Cumberland. I am getting conflicting reports on the tides from folks on the coast so not sure what to believe.

As it is tide is only 7.1 and 0.6 so its not a huge tide to begin with. So a 2-3 ft tide increase wouldnt be anything too out of the norm for the area.

Wind forecast is 5-10 mph, precipitation 10-15% chance.

Seems like a good day to fish minus the storm up North. Also storm is tracking to move North once it comes inland so I am going to make a decision tomorrow on it.
It sounds like a good fishing day to me but you might not do much catching.

I still like the fishing though.
 
Anything outside of 24 hours with this storm is sketchy. 12 hours could even be subject. That being said, I put all of the most likely scenarios in the MET SHACK a few minutes ago.
What's the Met Shack?!?! :eek:

EDIT: I Gargled it and found the Met Shack...one
of Woody's Campfire subforums.

Strangely, its not listed on the forum/subforum page...

http://forum.gon.com/
 
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