Next Recession?

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HD28

Senior Member
When / or will the next Recession happen? We have been doing pretty well for a while now!

Just saw an article saying some red flags are being seen indicating a possible one ahead.

(I am totally ignorant of all this stuff myself.)
 

jeardley

Senior Member
Commercial Construction always seems to slow on an election year. Too much uncertainty. I like how much it blew up after Trump got elected. Ready for round two. There are a ton of new projects being planned/designed in the Atlanta market right now and I'll bet Trump 2020 would turn another large swath loose.
 
How long can or will the fed keep propping up the economy with cheap money? Answer that and you’ll have the answer to your question.
 
How long can or will the fed keep propping up the economy with cheap money? Answer that and you’ll have the answer to your question.
Cheap money is here to stay because the government cannot tolerate an increase in its' borrowing costs. Your credit card interest on the other hand........:wink:
 
Most people are clueless about recessions and who’s at fault. People will argue that Obama tanked the economy in 2008. Except..... he wasn’t even president then. People say how terrible the market did when he was president except he never had 1 down year. I am for trump and a republican but facts are facts. And if we have a recession this year it’s not Obama fault or trump. It just happens. Unemployment rates below 4% means a strong economy for a long time and its at the end of the life cycle. My guess is we have a recession before next November and it’s gonna hurt trump. Because people are dumb. Hopefully it’s a mild one and not 2008. If it’s mild most wont even feel it. We have been on a bull run for a very long time. We are due
 
When / or will the next Recession happen? We have been doing pretty well for a while now!

Just saw an article saying some red flags are being seen indicating a possible one ahead.

(I am totally ignorant of all this stuff myself.)
They show up when they are ready, or when some branch of government does something really stupid.

Just resolve to decline to participate.
 

MudDucker

Moderator
Staff member
Inverse rates are supposed to be a fail safe indicator, until they are not. I think it misses this time, because it is more than likely due to the drop in fed rate.

Folks are jumping out the windows today.

I'm just chewing my cud. It will come, but if it happens now, it will be due to the world economy, not the US. The only really bad thing about the US economy right now is the debt level and excessive gov't spending. With the bump down in interest rates, that was relieved some.
 
Inverse rates are supposed to be a fail safe indicator, until they are not. I think it misses this time, because it is more than likely due to the drop in fed rate.

Folks are jumping out the windows today.

I'm just chewing my cud. It will come, but if it happens now, it will be due to the world economy, not the US. The only really bad thing about the US economy right now is the debt level and excessive gov't spending. With the bump down in interest rates, that was relieved some.
This. ^ It's a buying opportunity right now.
 

drhunter1

Senior Member
This. ^ It's a buying opportunity right now.
I would if I could get some dividends rolling. Right now I have to wait for a couple more direct deposits to buy. Slow and steady wins the race.
 

tr21

Senior Member
I did buy lots of gold options yesterday as a insurance policy, in case this is just the start and august is always a bad month in the market
 
The market went nutz today over something that used to be "normal" a couple of decades ago. Before the federal government's uncontrolled bank (FRB) overtly manipulated bond markets with zero or near zero rates, short term rates were usually higher than long. When that happened for the first time since the current floor traders were in diapers, the computer trade machines went south and the 25 to 35 year old "live" traders jumped on the fear wagon.

I agree that we are overdue for a correction (I don't think this is it) and that the market is increasingly volatile. I also realize that this market has had nay sayers hammering at it since Donald Trump was elected - and I think that has a cumulative impact on the response to any "bad" news.

I don't think an economic dive is in our immediate future. In fact, I expect that when the tariff war games shake out next year, and the democrats pick their new loser, the markets will have another growth spurt.
 
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