Perdue vulnerable in '06, poll says (Why is this wrong?)

Thread starter #1

Howard Roark

Retired Moderator
Perdue vulnerable in '06, poll says
Democrats Taylor, Cox could give him close race

By NANCY BADERTSCHER
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 10/18/04


Even as Gov. Sonny Perdue fights to help Republicans gain control of the General Assembly in November, a new poll shows that Georgia's first modern-era GOP governor might be facing a real re-election battle of his own in two years.

If the 2006 election were held today, Perdue would be in a statistical dead heat with either Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor or Secretary of State Cathy Cox, his two most likely Democratic opponents, according to the poll done last week by Zogby International for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and WSB-TV.

Perdue led Taylor 44 percent to 41 percent and was tied with Cox at 41 percent each. The margin of error for the poll of 503 likely voters was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

The poll, conducted Wednesday and Thursday, did show that the public's view of Perdue's job performance is about the same as a year ago: 43 percent rated it excellent or good; in October 2003, that rating was 46 percent.

Since Labor Day, Perdue has been fund-raising for Republican candidates in hopes of completing the GOP takeover of state government that started with his election. Within days of his upset victory in November 2002, party-switchers put Republicans in control of the state Senate. Democrats continue to run the state House of Representatives.

Perdue spokesman Dan McLagan said he still ranks as one of the nation's most popular governors, in polls done by Republicans.

McLagan said the forecasts for 2006 "sound about right when you're polling two years out."

But others, including University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock, said the poll should concern the Perdue camp and give hope to Democrats.

"Head to head, [Taylor or Cox] are in striking distance," Bullock said.

The poll numbers support his theory that Cox could be the stronger challenger for Perdue, with the ability to draw female voters, both Democratic and Republican.

In her position as secretary of state, Cox has been able to "stay out of the direct line of partisan fire," leaving the public with a more positive view of her, Bullock said. In contrast, he said, Taylor, as the state's highest-ranking Democrat, is always "mixing it up" publicly with Perdue.

Taylor has not officially announced for governor in 2006 but has started raising money for a campaign. Cox has said she has been encouraged to run, but has been noncommittal publicly.

Tom Florio, a married father of two who works in baggage transfers at Delta Air Lines, was among the poll respondents who said he would vote for Taylor or Cox over Perdue.

He said he voted for Perdue in 2002 largely because he felt then-Gov. Roy Barnes had not been fair to teachers.

But Florio, whose wife is a teacher, said he does not think that Perdue has done anything to help the teachers or to change the system that puts so much responsibility on teachers and not enough on parents and students.

He also said Perdue should be doing more to help recruit businesses for areas outside metro Atlanta and should at least have seemed sympathetic to Delta and its employees.

Samuel Bean, a real estate investor from east Cobb County, gives the governor good marks on his job performance and said he would vote for Perdue over either Taylor or Cox. "I like that he stands with the president," Bean said.

Bean said he doesn't know much about Cox but considers Taylor too aligned with Democrats, whom he views as big spenders.

Doug Heyl, a political consultant who ran Taylor's 2002 re-election campaign for lieutenant governor, said, "An incumbent governor at 44 percent is a weak incumbent governor."

Voters might be unhappy with "Perdue's priorities" and such decisions as cutting funding for medically needy nursing home patients, Heyl said.

Cox said the poll results "show that Georgians are ready for a change in leadership and a fresh approach to solving the problems facing our state."

She said she plans to take a serious look at the governor's race after the current election season.

"We're thrilled at these results, but right now I'm totally focused on the work of this office — especially doing everything possible to ensure a smooth and accurate election Nov. 2."
 

JBowers

Senior Member
A main reason it could be wrong is because the poll is only a snapshot of the current time and place, things change and alot can and will happen and change between now and then, which could be favorable for Perdue or unfavorable and the legislative make-up could be significant in that.
 

Dog Hunter

Senior Member
For one, I think our elections have gone smooth. The process has been started for elect. voting. The professional license process is very smooth. She has taken great strides to try and protect the eldery from predators after their lifesavings.
Most of the time when you do not see a state office on the news all the time, it is because everything is being ran smoothy.
Please don't mistake her for Kathy Cox the state super. of schools.
 
Thread starter #6

Howard Roark

Retired Moderator
Why is this analysis wrong?

You missed the question in the title. Why is this analysis wrong?

John Bowers is right. The election is a long way away. Lee Atwater always said a week was an eternity in an election.

Maybe Wayne Hill will get a shot at that office in 2010 and Lt. Governor in 2006. Sure hope so.
The next Lt. Governor will make national news in Georgia as will the 2010 governor. Why?
 

Mechanicaldawg

Roosevelt Ranger
I would never do that! One of them is a conservative Republican. The other is a leftwing liberal Democrat!

That aside, I do think she has carried out her orders from the legislature cleanly. I know that when I use the SOS website for renewals etc. it does run smoothly.
 

JBowers

Senior Member
Howard Roark said:
You missed the question in the title. Why is this analysis wrong?

John Bowers is right. The election is a long way away. Lee Atwater always said a week was an eternity in an election.



The next Lt. Governor will make national news in Georgia as will the 2010 governor. Why?
Nutshell version w/o the details:

Zell Miller returns?

OR, Cathy Cox allows, with some prodding by the party, Mark Taylor to step up and hang himself in the Governor's Race and takes the Lt. Governor as a consolation prize and then gets elected Gov in 2010, thereby making news by becoming the first female Lt Governor and Governor in Georgia's history.

OK David, what is the real skinny?
 
Thread starter #11

Howard Roark

Retired Moderator
The next Lt. Governor of Georgia will be a minority.
 

JBowers

Senior Member
Howard Roark said:
The next Lt. Governor of Georgia will be a minority.
That brings me to the other option I didn't post - Herman Cain.
 

JBowers

Senior Member
David,

Is that all...."a minority"? Not going to break the politican rule and be more specific. Heck, in general terms, stating it that way covers at least 2/3 of the options? Never buck the tiger!
 
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