***Severe Weather Thread for April 2018***

Thread starter #1

Miguel Cervantes

GON Severe Weatherman
Folks in the Southern half of the SE need to take note of the next system moving in Saturday into Sunday. It could get bumpy.

SPC AC 061720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 06 2018

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms, primarily capable of damaging winds,
will be possible Saturday from parts of the central/eastern Gulf
Coast to the coastal Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
Cyclonic flow aloft is expected to persist east of the Rockies
throughout much of the period before deamplifying very late in the
period behind a pair of phased shortwave troughs moving into the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. At the surface, a strong cold front will
likely extend from a low over central AL southwestward into deep
South TX. Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead
of this front at the beginning of the period, likely the remnant of
a decaying convective system that will move through the lower MS
Valley Friday night. Reintensification of ongoing activity and/or
new development is expected ahead of this front as it continues
southeastward across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic.

...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Convection will likely be ongoing over far southeast LA at the
beginning of the period. Moist airmass ahead of these storms is
supportive of modest instability, which, when combined with
favorable low-level shear (i.e. 0-1 km shear around 20 kt), may
result in occasional damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado.

Overall thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase
along and ahead of the front throughout the day as forcing for
ascent interacts with the slowly destabilizing airmass.
Destabilization will likely be tempered by abundant cloudiness,
muted daytime heating, and the lack of stronger height falls, with
MLCAPE generally expected to remain below 1000 J/kg. Even so,
increasing mid-level flow and a deepening surface low will result in
favorable vertical wind profiles and a few more organized storms are
possible, particularly across southern GA and southeast SC. Primary
severe threat will be damaging wind gusts but a brief tornado or two
is also possible.

..Mosier.. 04/06/2018



 
Top