Ice Storm Possible Friday 12/29

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Winter Weatherman
Alright, so the 00Z model data (most of it) is in for tonight and now the GFS has started to come on board with what the EURO, GEFS and CMC models have been showing now for 24-36 hours. All models agree on a freezing rain / sleet storm to start in the early hours of Friday morning December 29th.

Not a lot has changed on the CMC model. What did change some on the EURO model is the moisture is not shown as heavy, however it is still a long running freezing rain ice storm. Given it's length and intensity this would be a major ice storm for Macon Northward. The model pictures give you an idea of areas of concern. What is interesting to me is the modeling of the EURO and CMC both show ice all the way to the Alabama border and back North and East. The GFS is more in the NE part of the state but given the GFS's issues I look for it to come more in line as the days get closer to the event. The temperatures are probably too warm on the GFS. The ensemble members of the GFS (GEFS) tend to point towards the operational model being too warm and given it's moisture would be more in line with the CMC.

One thing that has Miggy and I a little puzzled and gives me pause, is the blocking that would hold the High Pressure in place and shove the cold air down the back side of the Appalachians, there are some signs that this may be breaking down, which could cause the cold air to move out faster and not leave as much cold air in place. That remains to be seen if that will play out. Something to keep in mind when thinking about this storm system.

I am going to post the GFS, CMC and EURO precip maps. These are all freezing rain (ice) and sleet (ice pellets). There is no chance of snow for Georgia in these maps.

Last thought, if these same models are giving out the same information on Tuesday I look for the NWS to put us under a Winter Weather Advisory and if the thought is the same on early Thursday they will put the Northern half of GA under a Winter Storm Warning. The results of what is being modeled would be significant to powerlines, trees and roads.

Stay tuned here and to your local NWS office. With the Christmas holidays tomorrow and Monday our posting will probably be limited but we will do our best.