Political polls

Thread starter #1

stringmusic

GON Meatierolajist
I understand that not a lot of folks around here are putting much faith in the polls, because they got it wrong in 2016. My question is, how accurate were the polls over the last 50 years? If polls are accurate most of the time, but got it wrong in 2016, is it smart to discount the polls all together?
 
Accuracy of polls has declined thanks mainly to telemarketers, caller ID and people feeling like their information may be used against them in the future when the polling company sells their data to another company. Telemarketers have turned answering any unknown phone call into an open invitation for future harassment and thanks to caller ID, people now can easily screen their calls. This drastically lowers the population size that can be polled. Data privacy is also a huge concern, so people may answer as they think the pollster wants in order to prevent "wrong" think data from being used against them (very 1984) on controversial issues. This means you end up with a skewed data set on any controversial issue. Polling companies try to adjust, but they're always chasing and anytime someone alters the data, it causes more error.
 
Yes, that is a big thing. When I get a call for a political poll, I usually hang up without participating.
 

BassMan31

Senior Member
If I'm called and asked about who I'm supporting in the election I either lie or don't answer at all. I assume I'm not just alone in my behavior here but in the majority of people like me.
 

flynlow

Student at the Hard Knock School of Aerodynamics
I answer polls on my landline at work because I'm required to answer the phone there. I'm not required to answer on either of my cell phones. That being said, I always say I'm voting for Biden. I'm lying. I've already cast my vote for the Trumpster. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one screwing with their polls.
 

Throwback

🌽 LIBERTAW!!! 🌽
2018 Georgia governor polls averaged Kemp winning by 3+
he ended up winning by 1.5.
So the polls can be wrong the other way too
 

Ray357

Senior Member
I understand that not a lot of folks around here are putting much faith in the polls, because they got it wrong in 2016. My question is, how accurate were the polls over the last 50 years? If polls are accurate most of the time, but got it wrong in 2016, is it smart to discount the polls all together?
I don't know. My opinion is cell phones have messed up the polling model and the pollsters are yet to find a solution.
You must take Operation Chaos into account as well.
 

Throwback

🌽 LIBERTAW!!! 🌽
A lot of Republicans voted against that little sawed off, Clarke County liberal, RINO.
He was the only close state wide race.
Who did they vote for ? Abrams?
 
Half a hundred years ago, the political polls were inaccurate but close enough when the spread was 10% to 15%. Who would complain about a poll that said a certain senator would win by 55 to 44% and the spread turned out to be 52-48 or 59-40. In the 60s through the early 90s, everyone had a wired home phone and (in spite of an occasional sales call from a fence salesman) everyone was generally polite and honest on the phone. Pollsters could actually speak to a random cross section of eligible voters. Poll creators were actually trying to get accurate results so the questions were not leading or biased. Polls were even taken outside of political campaign season in an effort to obtain baseline information.

Around 2000 all of that changed. Political polls became tools for political disinformation. The divisions between parties became less civil. The differences became acute and acrimonious. Entire segments of the voting population quit talking to pollsters on landlines. The polls were generally useless in 2000, and again in 2002. The left began taking over the remaining independent news outlets and many polls were an obvious tool of the DNC in 2004. Even the remaining "legit" poll takers were much less accurate in elections where the splits became even smaller. The replacement of land lines with call phones destroyed the last vestiges of the pollsters model, but they didn't stop!

It wasn't just 2016 and the polls obviously supporting Hillary. Look back at what happened in 2014 and 2012. The polltakers are either in the bag with globalists, socialists and the DNC or they are stuck with no way to accurately predict the vote and in denial. Their margins for error have grown and the real vote margins have shrunk!

No. I don't trust polls.
 

Robert28

Senior Member
Polls are only for shaping public opinion and to suppress the other side from voting. That’s ALL they’re for and most have come to realize that. 2016 just exposed it so the media doubled down on stupid. The polls in 2018 missed a lot too, the Democrats didn’t have near the night they were expecting to have but yet it was spun as a “blue wave”.
 
Thread starter #17

stringmusic

GON Meatierolajist
I answer polls on my landline at work because I'm required to answer the phone there. I'm not required to answer on either of my cell phones. That being said, I always say I'm voting for Biden. I'm lying. I've already cast my vote for the Trumpster. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one screwing with their polls.
If I'm called and asked about who I'm supporting in the election I either lie or don't answer at all. I assume I'm not just alone in my behavior here but in the majority of people like me.
This season I usually hang up but when I participate I lie and say Biden.
What exactly is the purpose in saying you’ll vote for Biden? I’m not saying it’s the wrong strategy I’m just wondering what the purpose is?
 

marknga

GONetwork Member
I hang up. BUT I know several people who give wrong info just to mess with them. So several Biden supporters are actually on the TRUMP Train!
 
I hang up, or just don't answer the phone. My phone at home says RNC Poll or something like that. If I get a call on my cell that I don't know, I let it go to voice mail.

I get to many calls now that are concerned about the warranty on my car expiring to answer an unknown number
 

Robert28

Senior Member
Ive gotten a TON of text messages from both sides. Few phone calls on my cell and landline but it’s been 75% text messages.
 
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