Rebel Yell
Banned
A great offseason read. There's ALOT more info at the link (link MAY contain some bad language in the comments)
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...llege-football-recruiting-teams-championships
Every recent national champion first met a recruiting standard. Based on talent ratios, who's got the best shot at future titles?
Every BCS champion since recruiting rankings could be accurately tracked (2005, or four classes after Scout joined Rivals in rating players) has met a benchmark: it's recruited more blue-chips (four- and five-star players) than lesser-rated players over its four previous signing classes.
The 11 blue-chip programs:
The 2014 national champion will likely come from among these 11 schools. After all, every national championship since 2002 has been won by programs in this list of 11.
Alabama: 73 percent blue-chip recruitsThe Tide have undoubtedly been the most dominant team in college football over the past few years, with six straight 10-win seasons, three national titles in a four-year stretch and five BCS bowls in the past six seasons.
The class the Tide just inked was their fourth No. 1 in a row, likely Nick Saban's best yet. An Alabama scholarship offer commands instant attention from almost any recruit. The Tide market their "built by Bama" branding non-stop, making sure recruits know how many NFL players come through Tuscaloosa.
Alabama is the perfect model for the theory that recruiting success leads to on-field success. No team is all that close to what Alabama has accomplished, on the field or off. It's not just about oversigning, as many claim. Alabama's ratio is king.
If recent history is any indication, Alabama's incredible roster, featuring more raw talent than any other team in the nation, should make it one of the top contenders for the first College Football Playoff title.
Ohio State: 68 percent (17 percentage points better '13-14 than '11-12)One of six teams above the 60 percent mark, Ohio State is a machine. In two seasons under Urban Meyer, the Buckeyes have gone 24-2 with a perfect 16-0 record in regular-season Big Ten play.
The smart pick to win the Big Ten every year. Ohio is the best recruiting state in the Midwest, and Ohio State has also shown the ability to recruit nationally, like winning five-star linebacker Raekwon McMillan out of SEC country. The Buckeyes have recruited at an even stronger rate under Meyer.
Ohio State has yet to win the Big Ten under Meyer, but it'll be the smart pick every year in which Meyer keeps outrecruiting the rest of the conference at such a ridiculous rate.
USC: 64 percentUSC is breaking in a new head coach in Steve Sarkisian after Lane Kiffin failed to replicate the Pete Carroll era at USC.
While USC's percentage is excellent, NCAA sanctions meant the Trojans signed just 75 players over the last four years, about 19 fewer than the average of the other 10 teams who eclipsed the 50 percent mark. Can the Trojans get back to meeting the mark while still taking full classes?
Notre Dame: 63 percent (25 percent better '13-14 than '11-12)Notre Dame is located in the worst state for recruiting of any team eclipsing the half mark, but the Fighting Irish have always had to recruit nationally. Notre Dame has seen mixed on-field results through four years under Brian Kelly, with a 37-15 record boosted by a 12-1 title shot.
Now, Kelly is taking over play-calling duties, and the Irish are playing some tougher competition over the next few years -- Notre Dame will need its blue chips to turn into stars.
While Vegas has Alabama and Ohio State 5/1 and 9/1, respectively, to win the next national title, Notre Dame checks in at 40/1. That could have a lot to do with schedule and roster losses, but the data suggests Notre Dame is closer in talent to those two than the odds show.
LSU: 62 percent (17 percent better '13-14 than '11-12)LSU has performed at a level of sustained success unmatched by nearly any other program in college football in the new millennium, never once falling below eight wins.
LSU brought in an excellent 2014 class. Some Tigers fans will lament the amount of talent that escaped Louisiana, which was as loaded as anyone can remember.
Despite being in a division with Alabama and Auburn, LSU has the sixth-best odds to win the title, at 16/1.
Texas: 60 percent (27 percent worse '13-14 than '11-12)Can Charlie Strong fight off Texas A&M? Erich Schlagel, Getty
The Longhorns haven't made a BCS bowl since after the 2009 season --- a loss in the BCS Championship to the Tide, which Texas followed up with its first losing season since 1997.
The Horns are moving into a new era with former Louisville head coach Charlie Strong, and we'll see if he can take their loaded roster to new heights. In the final seasons of the Mack Brown era, development of talent was clearly lacking, as the Longhorns are the exemplar program for underachievement on this list.
Looking at Strong's track record at Louisville, that issue should be corrected, both through signing stars and making sure the lesser-rated signees are well-scouted and fit for the system. But, can he recruit at a high enough level? Texas' recruiting over the last two cycles brought in 27 percent less blue-chip talent than its 2011-12 classes. It's still Texas, but things are tougher now that A&M has established itself as a legitimate recruiting power.
Texas is posted at 40/1 odds to win the next title.
Florida State: 56 percentThe Noles will be strong contenders to repeat in 2014, as the odds-on favorite at 15/4.
Florida State's two-year recruiting trend is fairly flat, but Florida State fans are probably okay with that, given the crystal ball Jimbo Fisher and Jameis Winston just hoisted. It will be interesting to see what FSU does on the recruiting trail in 2014 coming off a title, as history shows that teams typically see a bump not a few weeks after winning the title, but in the year immediately following that title.
Michigan: 55 percent (16 percent better '13-14 than '11-12)It's getting pretty close to reckoning time for Brady Hoke at Michigan. The Wolverines recruit at the highest level, but a 15-9 conference record over three years and diminishing win totals in each year of his tenure has his job in question entering a fourth year.
Michigan is also listed as 40/1 to win the championship.
Florida: 54 percent (16 percent worse '13-14 than '11-12)Florida is by far the most talented team that had a losing record in 2013. There's good reason why Will Muschamp is also on the hot seat. A terrible 4-8 season with a loss to then-FCS Georgia Southern will do that.
With another solid recruiting class in 2014, and new coordinator Kurt Roper to overhaul the offense, fans in Gainesville will want to see at least twice as many wins and appreciable improvement on offense. Florida's offensive recruiting has lagged behind its defensive hauls, but the talent Florida has brought in on the offensive side is still rated considerably higher than on most other teams.
A national title may be a bit much to ask at 50/1 odds, but a strong on-field campaign could really help recruiting, as many of the Sunshine State's top players for the class of 2015 grew up as Florida fans.
Auburn: 53 percentAfter the disastrous 2012 campaign that saw the Tigers go winless in SEC play, Gus Malzahn took over and immediately led them to an SEC title and a place in the title game. Auburn makes the cut despite a 2013 class that doesn't quite measure up on paper to what the Tigers signed in 2011, 2012 and 2014.
The Plainsmen are currently listed as 20/1 to win the 2014 title.
Georgia: 51 percentGeorgia also just makes the cut. Mark Richt's squad could make things interesting with new defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, a top recruiter stolen away from Florida State.
Considering the amount of high-quality players the Dawgs bring in, it's a bit surprising they haven't won a conference title since 2005. Georgia is currently 28/1 to win the championship, tied for the 13th-best odds.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...llege-football-recruiting-teams-championships
