Housing market cooling in your area?

[kayaksteve]

I’ve noticed existing homes with for sale signs sitting a little longer, which is probably people late to the party wanting top dollar. Theres still a good bit of new construction going on but we have slowed down a lot on new construction jobs lately. Hard to say if it’s just the end of the year and the holidays or if it’s an actual slow down.

 

[mguthrie]

We’ve been as busy as ever framing new custom homes. I keep hearing about this crash coming. Nearly 3 years now. You can still get a mortgage in the high 4% range. My builders are full speed ahead. One just finished developing 33 lots on a local reservoir. Said he’s got as many as 10 families looking to build. These will be $600,000 to 1 million dollar homes. Most of these folks are building with cash or can afford a $3000-$5000/month mortgage. The one we started today is over 5000 sq ft

 

[ClemsonRangers]

my first mortgage was 10%, refinanced to 7%

but house with 10 ac was $46,000

lol

 

[GeorgiaBob]

St Marys/Kingsland/Camden County didn't go bust in 2009+ like a lot of markets, but prices here are cushioned by the presence of Kings Bay Navy Sub base. The turnover in sub crew, shore personnel, and the turnover in contractors means there is a steady but balanced flow of sellers and buyers. When things were booming before 2008, the high volume of houses on the market kept prices from booming. In 2009 and after, the steady supply of new submariners, support personnel, and civilian missile techs, kept prices from dropping too much.

Recently, this tiny corner of the state has seen a number of small subdivisions get approved and start developing. With the economic slowdown and inflation, I suspect that the area is beyond the maximum number of homes and apartments for a balance of needs. The sub base is not adding any more subs and there are no major employers moving into town. The time on market average for houses here has gone from less than a week (last winter) to over 25 days (November).

That said, the St Marys City Council (or more accurately, The St Marys Committee of Morons) is about to approve the annexation of 1,800 acres of land next to I-95 at exit 1, major zoning change for the land, a multi-million dollar bond package, and approval for a developer to slam in about to 2,000 housing units plus another hospital, a hotel and shopping. I am guessing that this development will be about a unsuccessful as the last two wild developer schemes St Marys Committee of Morons approved. The prior two "can't fail" developments left the property owners of St Marys paying extra taxes to cover the city's loses for one failed gated community and a failed waterfront development.

 

[sinclair1]

We live 1 mile from heartwood. They plan to build 10,000 houses in the area the next decade.
Hopefully things will slow for 5 or so years. We enjoy the swamps peace and quiet.

Nearly 3 times the size of The Landings, Richmond Hill housing development will double population

Heartwood at Richmond Hill sits off I-95 at Exit 82 and will boast more than 10,000 homes and will double the size of Richmond Hill.

www.savannahnow.com

 

[sinclair1]

Stuff will get affordable again. It always does.

That’s been the case in prior bubbles, but this one is pulling higher wages with it. I doubt prices will go down as much as prior times. We cashed out our bubble buys from 2012 and plan to just live from here on out.

 

[livinoutdoors]

That’s been the case in prior bubbles, but this one is pulling higher wages with it. I doubt prices will go down as much as prior times. We cashed out our bubble buys from 2012 and plan to just live from here on out.
View attachment 1197804

People always think the party aint never gonna end. It always does at some point. Who knows when? Nobody.

 

[sinclair1]

People always think the party aint never gonna end. It always does at some point. Who knows when? Nobody.

That’s true. It’s gonna end, but I don’t see the south having the real estate sell off like they did in 2009-2012. Too many Yankees are turned on to the southern lifestyle now. We will be California in 20 years. We are way behind on housing here with the new Hyundai plant and many others moving here. They had better slap up 10,000 houses or the new workers will be in tents.

If anyone can wreck it enough to over power all the shortage and drive prices to recession level, we have the right folks in charge.

I don’t have a clue anymore, so I am buying stock when it hits the bottom and holding until retirement.

 

[Big Foot]

slowed, but prices holding - Milton, Ga

 

[livinoutdoors]

That’s true. It’s gonna end, but I don’t see the south having the real estate sell off like they did in 2009-2012. Too many Yankees are turned on to the southern lifestyle now. We will be California in 20 years. We are way behind on housing here with the new Hyundai plant and many others moving here. They had better slap up 10,000 houses or the new workers will be in tents.

If anyone can wreck it enough to over power all the shortage and drive prices to recession level, we have the right folks in charge.

I don’t have a clue anymore, so I am buying stock when it hits the bottom and holding until retirement.

Well thats all based on industry stayin productive. We can pay for all the helicopter money one of two ways, either Argentina or pre war Germany style, or 1929 America style. Either way the bill is due.

 

[Redbow]

People sure ain't snapping up houses like they used to in our area anymore.

 

[bassboy1]

I think recency bias may be clouding some folks perception - the mindset being that the last recession was a real estate crash, thus this one should be, too. Maybe that will end up being true, maybe not, time will tell.

But, we tend to have a recession every decade to decade and a half, and they tend to manifest in different facets of the economy, so I wouldn't be so quick to jump to the 'real estate crash' conclusion for this go 'round.

This time around, nobody has those ARMs or interest only mortgages with balloon payments, or other oddball setups where payments could skyrocket on a whim. They've got 30 year fixed rate mortgages at less than 3%. And everyone likes to look at the crazy prices people have been paying for houses, but with interest as low as it was, the payment on a 300k+ house is still cheaper than a 2 bedroom apartment, so I'm not sure I'm seeing where the need to short sale is going to come from.

There's sure to be some good deals on something, but be sure to look outside the realm of real estate.

 

[sinclair1]

But, we tend to have a recession every decade to decade and a half, and they tend to manifest in different facets of the economy, so I wouldn't be so quick to jump to the 'real estate crash' conclusion for this go 'round.

This time around, nobody has those ARMs or interest only mortgages with balloon payments, or other oddball setups where payments could skyrocket on a whim. They've got 30 year fixed rate mortgages at less than 3%. And everyone likes to look at the crazy prices people have been paying for houses, but with interest as low as it was, the payment on a 300k+ house is still cheaper than a 2 bedroom apartment, so I'm not sure I'm seeing where the need to short sale is going to come from.

There's sure to be some good deals on something, but be sure to look outside the realm of real estate.

Agree 100%. We went Real estate last time 2012. This time we are small timing some stocks and just sitting on the sidelines.
The last cycle set anyone that cares up for tons of equity. Some were a sleep at the wheel, some lost, some just want to go to work and sleep, but a good amount are sitting pretty.

Like you said, it will cycle back around and anyone too young to take advantage last time, will have their chance.

 

[mguthrie]

I think recency bias may be clouding some folks perception - the mindset being that the last recession was a real estate crash, thus this one should be, too. Maybe that will end up being true, maybe not, time will tell.

But, we tend to have a recession every decade to decade and a half, and they tend to manifest in different facets of the economy, so I wouldn't be so quick to jump to the 'real estate crash' conclusion for this go 'round.

This time around, nobody has those ARMs or interest only mortgages with balloon payments, or other oddball setups where payments could skyrocket on a whim. They've got 30 year fixed rate mortgages at less than 3%. And everyone likes to look at the crazy prices people have been paying for houses, but with interest as low as it was, the payment on a 300k+ house is still cheaper than a 2 bedroom apartment, so I'm not sure I'm seeing where the need to short sale is going to come from.

There's sure to be some good deals on something, but be sure to look outside the realm of real estate.

Someone with some common cents

 

[westcobbdog]

Stuff will get affordable again. It always does.

I dont think prices will fall too far, as inventory is still mostly tight but it is building. If the govt keeps jacking up the rates only the wealthy, well capitalized folks will still be buying as rates don't effect them nearly as much.
Right now I have a listing at 659k, one at 799k and another at 749k plus a piece of land around 260k. All getting action even right at Xmas time. Held the 799k home open last Sunday ( off Lavista ) and had maybe 20 folks come thru the home.
Overall the market has cooled where all the foolish cash / blind money is not flying around like it was before. Most investors have pulled back. Sold a house and buyer was a guy with 27m in his acct. he way overpayed but never saw the house as he lives in California. Listed a way better home same area at the same price point shortly after, called the rich guys agent back and was told his investor had quite buying.
If you price a house like it was priced 6 months ago it may be on the market quite awhile, the exception being exceptional houses in all price ranges are still selling high and fast.

 

[earlthegoat2]

I’m in a position to buy but I won’t if there isn’t a true crash. I’ll just buy investment vehicles. I’m not biased. Regency or no.

 

[SC Hunter]

We sold our house earlier this year for exactly double what I paid for it in 2012. We have been living in my inlaws rental that my father in law inherited and waited a few months to start building and let material prices come down some. Huge gamble but it helped, interest rates are rising but I can't expect to have a great interest rate and dirt cheap material prices. We'll have around 100k in equity when we move in. 2240 Sq foot home on 15 acres, 200 yards off the road and unable to be seen from said road. I'm ready to be there.

 

[Stob]

We’ve been as busy as ever framing new custom homes. I keep hearing about this crash coming. Nearly 3 years now. You can still get a mortgage in the high 4% range. My builders are full speed ahead. One just finished developing 33 lots on a local reservoir. Said he’s got as many as 10 families looking to build. These will be $600,000 to 1 million dollar homes. Most of these folks are building with cash or can afford a $3000-$5000/month mortgage. The one we started today is over 5000 sq ft

If you get off the beaten path a little bit just north of subdivision land, the number of custom homes on 3, 5, 20 acre plots is insane.

I am looking for my final resting spot to build on out of State and this trend is really screwing with my land searches.

 

[ucfireman]

Too many Yankees are turned on to the southern lifestyle now.

And that's why I don't see a crash like 08.
I don't even know if prices will come down much, just take longer to sell.

If you get off the beaten path a little bit just north of subdivision land, the number of custom homes on 3, 5, 20 acre plots is insane.

I am looking for my final resting spot to build on out of State and this trend is really screwing with my land searches.

That's my problem too.

 

[Mexican Squealer]

Still red hot in my neighborhood. Insane what houses are going for and how short a time they are staying on the market. I’m not selling but man I’m tempted to…