***General Discussion Weather Thread #9 2017***

[Miguel Cervantes]

Here is a more realistic image of what is possible for NW GA.
That being said, this is a "copy image address" link, which I don't like to use because it is an html file linked to the hour run and will change with each update on the model site. Attaching pictures gives a more accurate image that will not change.

 

[smokey30725]

Bunch of Debbie downers...............

 

[DDD]

I cannot get pictures to load now. I see that some of you are, but I cannot. It keeps telling me the file TYPE is no good. I have saved them as jpgs and pngs and resized them... just keeps saying no good.

Frustrating.

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

I cannot get pictures to load now. I see that some of you are, but I cannot. It keeps telling me the file TYPE is no good. I have saved them as jpgs and pngs and resized them... just keeps saying no good.

Frustrating.

You can link them by copying the image address then coming here and clicking on the little "picture" icon and inserting that link.

You cannot however attach pictures like we could before the maintenance. It is a patch, but not all sights play well with the "copy image address" feature.

 

[northgeorgiasportsman]

Glenn Burns just said we got some crazy arctic high pressure zone bringing single digits next week. What's he on about?

 

[malak05]

Glenn Burns just said we got some crazy arctic high pressure zone bringing single digits next week. What's he on about?

Canadian and GFS recent runs show a strong HP from North and West coming down and basically drops the Cold hammer on South and opens the Fridge would definitely be coldest air seen in several winters probably but due to the HP being so powerful any Low Pressure precipitation from Gulf is squashed to Cuba so no wintry precip for us anywhere around Christmas.

GFS particular is probably over-done a good bit on just how strong that HP so gonna take a few days to see any kind of constitancy to them showing that HP

From Tuesday into Friday next week Lows in N. Georgia at about 7-10 degrees and down into South Ga and Panhandle being in the low 20s and several days where half of GA doesn't get above freezing for the day

 

[Greene728]

You can keep that junk!!!

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

Glenn Burns just said we got some crazy arctic high pressure zone bringing single digits next week. What's he on about?

Possible, but he could have been reading the celsius scale without converting it also.

 

[gobbleinwoods]

Glenn drinking in the Christmas cheer?

 

[krisjack]

Euro showing rain last run but time will tell. It has lots of time to change. About six days in fact. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121900/georgia/ecmwf_ptype_georgia_144.png

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

Glenn drinking in the Christmas cheer?

So far the only trend is that it will be colder, there is still ensemble disagreement as to how much with a bit more than a 10°F discrepancy in temperatures for next week. The good news is, that is a fairly small discrepancy in disagreement. The GFS Ensemble alone has a better than 30°F discrepancy difference in temperatures for 12/25. Six days out that is kind of crazy, but totally expected out of the GFS.

 

[krisjack]

Yeah the last run of the NAM sees it being created and all of them have it backing up and holding a bit then get out.Really bizarre that they are pretty much agreeing with this far out. Temps are gonna be cold for sure but with there be enough moisture and temps aloft to allow for wintry precipitation is key. It usually runs into the drier and warmer air down here in southern Georgia.

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

Yeah the last run of the NAM sees it being created and all of them have it backing up and holding a bit then get out.Really bizarre that they are pretty much agreeing with this far out. Temps are gonna be cold for sure but with there be enough moisture and temps aloft to allow for wintry precipitation is key. It usually runs into the drier and warmer air down here in southern Georgia.

I don't see any moisture being available with that tropospheric shot of cold next week. The GFS still holds out for a chance, but the GFS is smoking a speshul kind of weather crack most of the time.

 

[PappyHoel]

No frozen percip please. Gotta get family in and out expeditiously. I have 3.5 day limit on all family exposure.

 

[krisjack]

Yeah, it does but it did decent with the last system that came through and the NAM was right on the money. The NYE storm is something to watch out for too. Gonna be a system every 5 to 7 days it seems here. I say that January will be a very cold month. December was warm even with that snow event in northern Georgia and central and Northern Alabama. We just have to keep an eye out for it. I am on a weather team myself called
Southeast Area Severe Weather and we are watching it closely as well. It has been one crazy ride in 2017 weather wise lol.

 

[blood on the ground]

Yeah, it does but it did decent with the last system that came through and the NAM was right on the money. The NYE storm is something to watch out for too. Gonna be a system every 5 to 7 days it seems here. I say that January will be a very cold month. December was warm even with that snow event in northern Georgia and central and Northern Alabama. We just have to keep an eye out for it. I am on a weather team myself called
Southeast Area Severe Weather and we are watching it closely as well. It has been one crazy ride in 2017 weather wise lol.

I thought we just spent the last 15 or so days with below average temps?

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

Yeah, it does but it did decent with the last system that came through and the NAM was right on the money. The NYE storm is something to watch out for too. Gonna be a system every 5 to 7 days it seems here. I say that January will be a very cold month. December was warm even with that snow event in northern Georgia and central and Northern Alabama. We just have to keep an eye out for it. I am on a weather team myself called
Southeast Area Severe Weather and we are watching it closely as well. It has been one crazy ride in 2017 weather wise lol.

What are you basing all of this on? From the long term observations I am seeing, after this next cold shot we actually moderate to a warmer trend in January with our next heavy cold shot not returning until around the 3rd week in January.

 

[krisjack]

I read earlier that it was a warm December. That 74 degree temps near breaking highs days down here pretty much helped with that.

 

[krisjack]

Sometimes you have to base it on not just models but with gut and instincts and not just based on models.The satellite imagery that I have seen has the jet stream currently pushing these fronts that are hitting the west coast of Canada and pushing them down south. There is a huge ridge in Canada just waiting to bring further colder air so I believe we will have a colder January than we did this month.

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

Sometimes you have to base it on not just models but with gut and instincts and not just based on models.

Said no meteorologist ever.