DDD
Winter Weatherman
A friend of mine sends this out every year. He has done it for the last 3 years and he is a TECH FAN. Not a UGA fan. A Tech fan.
I think his analysis is good and fair. I don't agree with him this year about the running backs, but other than that... I think it is pretty much on par.
So here you go...
I think his analysis is good and fair. I don't agree with him this year about the running backs, but other than that... I think it is pretty much on par.
So here you go...
First of all, before I jump in and start my analysis, let me toot my own horn for a minute and remind you guys that in 2006 I predicted a 3 point win for whichever team had the fewest turnovers. UGA won 15-12 when Tech had 2 crucial turnovers. In 2007, I predicted UGA would win 30-20 and they won 31-17. So I would like to think that I am giving as fair and as honest an analysis as I can. I am trying my best to take off the gold-colored glasses while writing this. So, without further ado, here goes:
QUARTERBACKS – To put it simply, there is no QB in the ACC anywhere near the same talent level as Matthew Stafford at UGA. While UGA fans get frustrated at No. 7 at times for the interceptions and for throwing too hard on the short passes, Stafford simply can make plays and throws that no QB on Tech’s 2008 schedule can make. It remains to be seen if Stafford returns for his Sr. year, but he has played very well in his first two Tech-UGA games and it would be just fine with Tech fans if Stafford was playing on Sundays in 2009. Stafford has cruised through the year and leads the SEC in many passing statistics. Sophomore Josh Nesbitt is the starting QB for Tech. Nesbitt has battled injuries this year, with a hamstring injury against Miss. St. sidelining him for nearly 3 games and an ankle injury in the 3rd quarter against FSU costing him the rest of that game and seriously hampering him in the loss at UNC. These 2 starting QBs obviously have vastly different roles in their respective offenses, and Nesbitt was sharp as a tack in his decision making against Miami. Is he starting to grasp the difficult reads of the Paul Johnson offense, or will he regress against UGA? ADVANTAGE: UGA
WIDE RECEIVERS – AJ Green and Mohamed Massaquoi provide a formidable 1-2 tandem for UGA that will greatly challenge the young Tech secondary. While Tech has faced several similar big WR who will play on Sunday (Greg Carr for FSU and Hakeem Nicks at UNC in particular), this has to be considered the best receiving corps that Tech has faced all year. Demarius "Bebe" Thomas is the main target for Tech in those rare times when Tech decides to pass out of the option formations. Thomas is very large and physical and has made some spectacular catches this year, but has also had a few drops. The Tech receivers’ main job in this offense is to block and they have done a great job of that for the most part. ADVANTAGE: UGA
RUNNING BACKS – While few will probably argue that Knowshon Moreno is likely the best RB in this game, the talent gap between Moreno and Tech’s Jonathan Dwyer is much smaller than many UGA fans realize or may want to admit. Dwyer’s impressive blend of size and speed may actually make him a better NFL prospect when the time comes. Moreno is better at making tacklers miss; Dwyer is better at running through tacklers and combines it with break-away speed. If he gets into the secondary, he usually can’t be run down (as evidenced by TD runs of 88, 85, 66, & 58 yards already this year). Regardless, both of these backs are top-notch.
Consider some statistics: while the yardage is very close (Moreno 1,244 vs. Dwyer 1,184), Dwyer has 40 fewer carries than Moreno. This results in Dwyer averaging over a yard per carry more than Moreno (6.96 to 5.92). This is also against very similar schedules, strength-wise, according to the Sagarin rankings. Both teams have talented backs behind Moreno and Dwyer (Caleb King for UGA, 246 yards; Roddy Jones for Tech, 444 yards). Also, don’t discount Nesbitt’s rushing ability here either, as he has accumulated an impressive 591 yards rushing in only 8 games in the triple option attack. As a team, the Jackets are 4th in the nation at 271 yds per game and 5.5 yds per carry compared to UGA’s 4.8 yds per carry. ADVANTAGE: TECH
UGA OFFENSE VS. TECH DEFENSE: The Tech defensive front four, with the likely exception of Alabama, will be the most talented that UGA has faced this year. The 3 seniors are all currently projected as 1st round picks next April, with 6’7” freak Michael Johnson rated as a Top 5 pick on most draft boards. These 4 guys have accounted for some remarkable stats / accomplishments this year: 40.5 tackles for loss, 19.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 2 blocked FGs, 1 int. for a TD, 1 safety. The Jackets rank 9th in the nation in tackles for loss, thanks largely to these 4 guys. The Tech linebacker corp. is young and has suffered through injuries and can be exploited. The Tech secondary is also young, but very opportunistic. Led by talented sophomore, #1 Morgan Burnett (brother of UGA's Cap Burnett) who is tied for the national lead with 6 interceptions, Tech has 17 total picks (tied for 10th in the nation) by 9 different players. Tech leads the ACC in scoring defense at 16.7 pts. per game.
Still, despite the impressive resume and stats for Tech’s defense, UGA brings an offense that is in a different league than anything in the ACC. Although no single statistic jumps out at you (UGA is a respectable 24th in total offense), the Dawgs have many options and weapons at their disposal and will get their yards and points against Tech’s strong, but thin defense. Offensive coordinator Mike Bobo has frustrated UGA fans at times this year with his play-calling, but he is a rising star on the national scene and does an overall good job of keeping a defense off-balance. ADVANTAGE: UGA
TECH OFFENSE VS. UGA DEFENSE: The UGA defense has been surprisingly mediocre this year and this can probably be attributed to a couple of elements: lack of discipline & injuries. UGA is only 56th nationally in scoring defense, and this in a conference with some very weak offenses (Auburn, Tennessee, Vandy) to go along with Florida’s high scoring offense. This is probably the biggest worry for Dawg fans facing the Tech option that demands discipline in order to be contained. However, there are plenty of play-makers on the UGA defense, led by stud sophomore LB Rennie Curran, who leads the team in sacks, tackles and tackles-for-loss. Curran will probably be the best overall defender that Tech has had to face all year.
The Tech offense simply can’t be described in a brief paragraph, but it all comes down to execution: by the QB in his decision making, and execution by the offensive line in their blocking. Execute at a high level and you get what happened to Miami – 472 yards rushing in basically 3 quarters. Execute at a low level and you get a Virginia output (less than 300 total yards). The expectation is that the team is grasping the offense a little better each time out here in Year 1. Based on the first 11 games and some very solid defenses played against, it is a true statement to say that Tech has a better chance of stopping themselves on offense than the UGA defense does.
Coming into the season, one of the misconceptions of the triple-option offense was “3 yards and a cloud of dust”. However, the Tech option might be one of the best “big play” offenses outside of the Big 12. The Jackets have an astounding 59 plays of 20 yards or more this season (compared to 31 for their opponents). Tech has also had 16 scoring drives of 2:00 or less and 21 scoring drives that took 5 plays or less. Limiting big plays for the Jackets is an absolute must for UGA. Miami's defense, full of 4 and 5 star athletes, was gouged for 10 plays of 20+ yards Thursday night. ADVANTAGE: TECH
COACHING: Mark Richt has accomplished much in his nearly 8 yrs at UGA – 2 SEC Championships, five 10-win seasons, 3 Sugar Bowl berths, a 7-0 record against Tech, and winning records against both Tenn. And Auburn. A 2-6 record vs. Florida and the lack of a National Championship are the only real “beefs” with his resume. Dawg fans often grumble about the occasional “lack of passion” that UGA shows, but these are 18-22 yr old kids and it is just hard to avoid a letdown sometimes. Richt has been everything a Dawg fan could have dreamed of 8 yrs ago when he was hired. And he is a stand-up guy, a Christian, and a great leader and developer of young men.
For years, Paul Johnson has been one of the most highly regarded offensive minds in college football coaching circles and his performance and that of the Tech team in 2008 have done nothing to change that opinion. Only 2 coaches (Barry Switzer & Joe Paterno) in CFB history have more wins in their first 11 seasons than Paul Johnson. A strong case can be made for him having accomplished more than Richt when you use the “pound for pound” analogy and consider the constraints of the Naval Academy and the National Championships at Georgia Southern.
Still, the edge here has to go to UGA, at least in this game, because Richt has never lost to Tech (thanks in large part to Chan Gailey and Reggie Ball) and Paul Johnson has never faced UGA. ADVANTAGE: UGA
INTANGIBLES: This may be the most intriguing part of the 2008 Tech-UGA game, largely due to the unique option offense that Tech runs. Having 2 weeks to prepare for Tech is a definite advantage for UGA, but probably moreso because of the extra rest than the extra week of preparing. UGA DC Willie Martinez has come under tremendous heat this year for some poor game plans. Allowing Tech to amass huge yardage and points would not help his chances of returning next season. Can he get the UGA defense ready to play “assignment” defense in 2 weeks and not slip during the game?
But there are many other intangibles in this one too: UGA’s significant penalty problems could help sustain Tech drives or stall UGA drives. Another factor is the mental challenge for Tech that naturally comes with a losing streak against an opponent. Will the coaching change provide fresh perspective for the Tech players, or will the losing streak play on their minds? Both teams have suffered some serious injuries to key players this year that may impact the outcome of the game this year. Tech has dealt with turnover problems all year that directly cost them 2 and maybe all 3 of their losses this year. Will the early start time take some of the “starch” out of the UGA home field advantage? Tech is 4-2 against the Sagarin Top 30, while UGA is 0-2. Does this matter? ADVANTAGE: EVEN
PREDICTION: In August, this looked like it could be a 20+ point line and the result might rival the 2002 debacle. I don’t think anyone is expecting that on Saturday. Tech comes in with momentum, confidence and a scary offense that no one wants to play. UGA is finishing out a solid year, but one that has fallen short of lofty preseason expectations. On paper, there is no doubt that UGA will run out more athletes, more talent, and more depth than Tech. I give Tech about a 35-40% chance of winning this game. The fact that Tech has not put together back-to-back great performances with the option yet this year scares me after the dominating win over Miami last Thursday night. If this game was at Tech, I would probably lean with the Jackets, but I have to call a UGA win again this year and hope I am wrong. The early line is UGA –11. Tech is 7-2 against the spread in D-1 games this year. FINAL SCORE: UGA 34, TECH 27
