***General Discussion Weather Thread #5 ***

[StriperrHunterr]

I can pee more than we'll get the next couple of days.

Something on this link y'all may want to read and keep in the back of your mind for the next few weeks to come.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/tornado-risk-amping-up-this-week-and-beyond

Ummm, okay.

I'm trying to get out feeshing Saturday. I can handle rain, but not lightning. I hope it misses us.

 

[malak05]

SPC did update the outlook tomorrow and raised the level to slight risk for parts of North GA. The Cape and Lift index is pretty impressive but doesn't have much shear to work with our could really been strong but still might be bumpy for some

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

SPC did update the outlook tomorrow and raised the level to slight risk for parts of North GA. The Cape and Lift index is pretty impressive but doesn't have much shear to work with our could really been strong but still might be bumpy for some

If it's clear and blue it may heat up enough.

 

[fountain]

I heard on a local radio channel earlier that the meteorologist for that channel is saying that this spring will be a wetter one that last spring that was somewhat a drought. That's backwards from all I've heard and seen so far. Think they are right or lost their mind? All I've been told and seen are indicating bad dry for this spring and summer.

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

I heard on a local radio channel earlier that the meteorologist for that channel is saying that this spring will be a wetter one that last spring that was somewhat a drought. That's backwards from all I've heard and seen so far. Think they are right or lost their mind? All I've been told and seen are indicating bad dry for this spring and summer.

I heard Glen Burns say that there is no severe weather in the forseeable future, even through April.

I think he's been hittin the sauce.

 

[fountain]

Maybe not severe, but casual rain?? That's what I was hoping for anyway

 

[Miguel Cervantes]

Maybe not severe, but casual rain?? That's what I was hoping for anyway

Anything outside of 10 days is statistical bafoonery when it comes to long range projections. I'll leave that sort of foot in mouth antics to the pros.

 

[YankeeRedneck]

I heard Glen Burns say that there is no severe weather in the forseeable future, even through April.

I think he's been hittin the sauce.

Oh Glenn how could you say that??
We always have severe weather in April!! That is a BROAD statement.

 

[blood on the ground]

 

[toyota4x4h]

They just upgraded us to erange lvl 3!

 

[jbird1]

Lots of daytime heating IMBY...

 

[malak05]

Yeah north GA bumped to moderate risk and slight extended a Lil I believe, this system mostly is being considered a hail & straight winds event but I wouldn't be shocked for a few spin ups, miggy education time can you give a general idea what tornado for this is a Lil lower, cape and lift index is ample is it just the missing higher wind shear?

 

[malak05]

This is 12z 3k NAM run pretty strong line moving thru Northern/NE GA tonight. That will bring some pretty healthy high winds and bad hail if NAM is accurate to those areas. Almost time to start watching radar though and see exactly what course that storm comings thru at and how far south it gets into GA.

 

[RinggoldGa]

Got a 8u kids tournament championship baseball game in Chattanooga from 630-7:45. Have texted both coaches and the league director with the info given here and the NAM showing these storms hitting between 7 and 8.

Trying to move first pitch up to 6 or just going ahead and moving to tomorrow as there's no chance we can play the second "if" game if needed.

We'll see if they heed the GON Miggy warning.

 

[malak05]

Got a 8u kids tournament championship baseball game in Chattanooga from 630-7:45. Have texted both coaches and the league director with the info given here and the NAM showing these storms hitting between 7 and 8.

Trying to move first pitch up to 6 or just going ahead and moving to tomorrow as there's no chance we can play the second "if" game if needed.

We'll see if they heed the GON Miggy warning.

Yeah I believe those are gonna be hard to get in based on current model/radar returns good luck stay safe

 

[malak05]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0302.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Areas affected...Parts of middle into southern Tennessee...northern
Alabama and Georgia...far western Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 211853Z - 212130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to evolve rapidly this
afternoon across multiple regimes from TN across northern AL, GA,
and the western Carolinas. Large hail and damaging winds will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a trough extending westward from
NC into southern TN, and across northern AL and GA. Strong heating
continues in this axis, where moisture and instability are also
maximized. Pressure falls also persist at a rate of up to 2mb/hr.
Visible satellite imagery shows substantial CU developing, and
scattered cells are expected to form over the next few hours. In
addition, an outflow surge is currently exiting southeastern MO and
moving into western TN, with substantial pressure rises behind. This
feature will also initiate new storm development as it enters a
warmer and more unstable environment to the east.

Although shear profiles are not particularly strong, mean winds are
sufficient for forward-propagating severe clusters. Further,
thermodynamics should compensate for the lack of shear. The 18Z BNA
and FFC soundings both show impressive midlevel lapse rates in
excess of 8 C/km with MUCAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg.
Downdraft/DCAPE values are also relatively large owing to the steep
lapse rates and dry air in the EML.

The ample instability and lapse rates should support hail into the
1.50 to 2.00" range, with increasing damaging wind threat as storms
increase in coverage and outflow production is maximized.

 

[malak05]

Latest 18z run of NAM 3k basically changes the complete outlook of the orientation and progress of these storms from more a NW to SE track in Central N. Georgia heading SE to basically West to East coverage and pressing south before then transitioning to the east & HRRR latest run moved that way too... very interesting if that's case alot more people in N. Georgia will be in coverage of this event.

 

[yelper43]

Hailing like crazy in Dalton right now

 

[malak05]

Hailing like crazy in Dalton right now

Yeah already reports of large hail in White County GA and Jackson County AL too...

 

[blood on the ground]

Bring it