There is already a major traffic jam for high school seniors. They are not only competing against all the other seniors, now they have over 1,000 transfers in the portal. I saw numerous scouts recommending to these kids to take any offer they had on the 15th because of the number in the portal.
A lot of those high school kids are going to wind up at a fcs school and a lot of those kids that would be at said fcs school are going to be out of luck. It’s far less risky taking a spencer rattler out of the portal than a 5 star out of high school. Even with warts the transfer is a known quantity. It’s not just kids deciding to transfer it’s also coaches encouraging kids that aren’t working out at school a to transfer. At the end of the day the numbers are the same except for the marginal kids in the portal or in high school and most of those probably don’t belong at the college level anyway. Community college transfers to 4 year schools are also going to get scarce